Fed Rate Cuts
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"What is happening is that household net worth is not growing by leaps and bounds - if anything it is going down - [which means] people actually have to start saving out of their current income. That has negative effects on spending growth. In many ways, I think the next five years in this economy could look like Japan after 1990. The big [growth] you got in variety of asset classes - financed by borrowing because of extraordinarily low rates - will come out. When you look at the economic landscape, stock prices are too high, house prices are too high, and you put all the pieces together and the size of the adjustment needed seems reasonably large. How many years does it take? Who knows? It doesn't necessarily mean we have five years of recession - maybe just 3-4 quarters of recession." *** "The Fed finished the year with those three rate cuts I called for back in May," says our currency counsellor, Chuck Butler. "And just to refresh your memories, I've also said that the Fed will continue to cut rates in 2008, until rates get to 3-3.25%. That's at least another 100 BPS, folks...think we'll be getting foreigners to line up at the door for our 3% yielding assets? Ooooh...the thought of it is giving me goose bumps!
"Yesterday, I also said that the we might see the Fed change their wording of 'balanced growth'. They didn't go so far, but they did say, 'Economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks.'
"Hmmm...doesn't sound as if growth is balanced with risk/inflation, does it? So why didn't they just drop the bias? Because, they know that it could 'spook' foreign investors. And when foreign investors get spooked, they don't buy our assets, and when they don't buy our assets, the current account doesn't get financed, and when the current account doesn't get financed...the dollar gets weaker!"
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